Chapter
1
Introduction
Background of the
Study
Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to
the adverse effects of climate change. Countries which are already poor and under-developed
lack the financial, technological and human resource capabilities needed to
cope with climate change. The countries of West Africa also have a high
direct dependence on their natural resources, both for food, and in economic
terms. West Africa encompasses several climatic zones, from humid (along the
southern coast) to arid (toward the north). The main cities are mostly
concentrated towards the coastal regions. Major water resources include the
Niger River, Lake Chad, the Senegal River, the Gambia River, and the Volta
region of Ghana. Many of the sub-region’s ecosystems (rivers, forests,
plateaus, mountains, deserts) are shared across borders. Many West Africans
depend directly upon their land. Much of the population (away from cities)
relies on subsistence agriculture, and migratory livestock farming is also
commonplace. The vast majority (around 80%) of energy demand is met through
biomass use. Agricultural export is a significant contributor to GDP for many
West African countries, as well as logging, and the mining and extraction of
natural resources such as metals and fossil fuels.
Climate change points out the course of the worldwide
and multi-year growths in atmospheric temperature and mean sea-temperature,
the drop in rainfall and amount of rainfall in designated areas, and the
resurgence of extreme events and natural disasters like floods and droughts.
The deadly mix of global warming and an increased variability of rainfall is resulting
in the incidences of extreme events, like low flows and floods and it is
expected to increase in the rate as well as in intensity all over
Africa. Current research has
emphasized the growth of river flows and its effects human habitations and on
the natural environment in the areas being studied for climate change impact.
The extent and gravity of effect of climate change in the continent also
depend on the area’s hydro-climatic conditions (Faye, 2018).
The effects of climate change are
already being felt by people across Africa. Evidence shows that the change in
temperature has affected the health, livelihoods, food productivity, water
availability, and overall security of the African people. According to the Climate Change
Vulnerability Index for 2015, seven of the ten countries most at risk from climate
change are in Africa. Africa has seen a decrease in rainfall over large parts
of the Sahel and Southern Africa, and an increase in parts of Central Africa.
Over the past 25 years, the number of weather-related disasters, such as
floods and droughts, has doubled, resulting in Africa having a higher
mortality rate from droughts than any other region.
There have been a series
of droughts in the Sudano-Sahelian region of West Africa in the past thirty
years, impacting on the Senegal, Volta, and Niger basins, hitting badly its ecosystems,
particularly its water resources. These
developments have hurt the weak economies of 13 of the 16 countries in this
region. Since the amount of rainfall has been decreasing through the years, and
the way it hits the region is variable in terms of frequency, space and time,
this has led to a corresponding decrease in river discharges as well as
receding levels of the region’s freshwater sources. Serious consequences have
happened and it has impacted on groundwater levels and it has accelerated the
desertification process in the region. This has resulted in massive migration
and crises in food security. There are many uncertainties and challenges
brought about by effect of climate change and the existence of many other
factors further compound the water resources. The
challenges and uncertainties associated with the impacts of future climate
changes on water resources in West Africa are further compounded by including
regional demographic factors, and non- existence or inadequate water
policies, inefficient management strategies and lack of reliable and adequate
data. This research describes the impact of climate change on the water
resources in the economies and standard of living in the countries of Senegal
and Ghana in West Africa. The goal is to find ways of mitigating the severity
of the situation, and to reduce the severity of the impacts on the already
stressed and poverty-stricken economies of West Africa (Oyebande, 2010).
Purpose and
significance of the topic
In Africa, climate change is not a long-term
scientific or technical issue, but is linked to basic human rights and
poverty alleviation. In fact, the continent is at the
front line of the areas being studied regarding the effect of climate
fluctuations on water resources (Faye, 2018). Scientific data on climate projections have
shown solid proof that the freshwater resources are susceptible to climate change
and along with it some very deadly consequences for the ecosystem it is in as
well as on the human population inhabiting the area (Bates, et al., 2008).
These consequences are even deadlier in areas that have arid and
semiarid climate like the one in West Africa. This then makes the continent,
quite susceptible to climate change due to its low adaptive capacity and high
exposure (IPCC, 2014). Several impact studies in the area of West Africa have
shown that water resources are significantly impacted by climate change (Aich
et al., 2014). Unfortunately, the information dissemination within the
continent is weak and knowledge about the impact of climate change on the
continent has been restricted due to feeble climate tracking, and chinks in the
reportage have been identified (IPCC, 2014).
The well documented droughts in the 1970s have resulted in decreased
water flows in numerous African river basins. The Senegal River Basin, located
in West Africa, has been at the epicenter of these droughts. Based on the
records, its annual average flow at one of its reference stations in Bakel fell
from 1374 m3 /sec over the period 1903-1950 to 840 m3 /sec in the period
1950-1972 and continued to worsen to only 419 m3 /sec in the period 1973-2002
(ENDA-TM, 2007). The drought has affected rain-fed agriculture, reduced the
occurrence of seasonal flooding in the wetlands, slowed down economic
development, and consequently caused poverty in the area (Oyebande &
Oyunuga, 2010). The lack of water has affected many human activities and sectors
of the economy like hydropower generation, fishery and agriculture. Since
water is front and center in the impacts of climate change to the economic
sectors of society, like in the transport, agriculture and energy sectors
(Osorio & Galiano, 2012), it is imperative to find out how climate change
will affect this valuable resource in the future.
The purpose of this study is to do
an assessment on the impact of climate change on the water
resources system in west Africa. This
topic is significant in that the result acquired from this investigation will
narrow the existing research gaps and give an insight of the magnitude of the
impact of climate change to the already vulnerable sub-region and will help
to map sectors that are more vulnerable to climate change.
This study will also
benefit scientists from all over the world who are studying similar water
resource systems in their part of the world, as a reference and a benchmark
on where the other water resource systems are standing. By sharing
information with each other, the scientists as well as the governments they are
advising can take concrete steps in fighting climate change and formulating
legislation that can slow it down as well as improve the situations in their
country’s respective water resource systems.
Finally, this study will
be useful to students of government policy, public administration, public
health as well as the environmental sciences since it will show governments,
local authorities, and the people in that environment coped up with the problem
of climate change, and document as well, the efforts of the people in those
affected areas to cope up with the problems presented to them.
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2. Research background and development
tendency in the world
There is general agreement that Africa, moving forward, will warm
at a rate greater than the global annual mean; projections for the continent
show a median temperature increase of between 3°C and 4°C by the end of the
century (Christensen et al., 2007). The impacts of this temperature increase
for West Africa are unclear, a result of the limited understanding experts
have for the natural processes that drive the region’s climate, including the
movement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, the occurrence of the West
African monsoon, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Conway, 2009). Gaps in
regional climate observations (due to an underdeveloped meteorological system
in Africa), limited regional modeling of West Africa’s climate, and a limited
capacity to provide accurate, high resolution projections for the region
compound these challenges (Boko et al., 2007; ECOWAS-SWAC/OECD, 2008; SWAC,
2009). The impact of climate change on regional precipitation patterns is
unclear; however, there is broad expectation that the African continent will
become drier (Conway, 2009) and of the potential for a greater number of
extremely dry and wet years in the Sahel region throughout this century, and
for more severe droughts (Boko et al., 2007). The impact climate change will
have on other extreme weather events (tropical cyclones, storm surges) is
unclear. Sea levels along the coast of West Africa could also rise by between
0.13 to 0.56 meters over the course of the century (Meehl et al., 2007: 813;
McSweeney, New & Lizcano, 2008). West Africa’s vulnerability to climate
change stems from: a high regional reliance on climate-sensitive economic
activities such as rain-fed agriculture, livestock rearing, fisheries and
forestry; the presence of large population clusters (approximately 40 percent
of the regional population) in coastal urban areas (Boko et al., 2007); the
low capacity of region’s social and ecological systems to cope with climatic
extremes; and existing strains on ecosystem services due to processes such as
loss of productivity and deforestation. As such, climate change is broadly
expected to adversely affect West Africa’s future development. Across West Africa, much of the population
relies directly on the land for survival. In Gambia for example, over 72% of
the population are part of the rural economy, dependent on natural rainfall
to grow food, some crops for selling, and to breed livestock. Changes in the
climate therefore have a very immediate impact. An overview of the major
impacts of climate change being experienced now across West Africa is given
below on a sectoral basis.
1. Impacts on weather pattern
Flooding is the most
prevalent disaster in North Africa, the second most common in East, South and
Central Africa, and the third most common in West Africa (AWDR, 2006). In North
Africa, the 2001 disastrous flood in northern Algeria resulted in about 800
deaths and economic loss of about $400 million. In Mozambique, the 2000 flood
(worsened by two cyclones) caused 800 deaths, affected almost 2 million
people of which about 1 million needed foods, 329,000 people were displaced
and agricultural production land was destroyed (AWDR, 2006). Between July
2011 and mid-2012, a severe drought affected the entire East Africa region
and was said to be “the worst drought in 60 years.
3. Impacts on Water Supply and
Quality
Projections of how
climate change will affect freshwater resources in West Africa are still
highly uncertain, and future availability will be strongly influenced by a
number of factors including population growth, migration and agricultural
development (deWit and Stankiewicz, 2006). As less than half of the population
of West African countries has access to a clean drinking water (Afouda et
al., 2007), many communities in the region have a low capacity to cope with
the additional water stress that may arise due to climate change. Observable effects of climate
change on water resources in Africa include flooding, drought, change in
distribution of rainfall, drying-up of rivers, melting of glaciers and the
receding of bodies of water. In West Africa, the entire economies suffer when
the water levels of Africa’s huge rivers drop. Ghana, for example, has become
totally reliant on the hydro-electric output of the Akosombo dam on the river
Volta. Mali is dependent on the river Niger for food, water and transport.
However, great stretches of the river is now facing environmental devastation
as a result of pollution. In Nigeria, half the
population
has no access to clean water. The gradual yet dramatic disappearance of the
glaciers on Mount Kilimanjaro is a result of climate change (IPCC, 2001). The
glaciers act as a water tower and several rivers are now drying up. It is
estimated that 82% of the ice that capped the mountain, when it was first
recorded in 1912, is now gone. (IPCC, 2001)
4. Impacts
on Agriculture and Food
Agriculture generates 25 to 30 percent of the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) in most West African countries and employs between 50 to 90
percent of the population. Changes in seasonality, intensity and amount of
rainfall could compromise agricultural production in the region, with the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projecting a reduction in
the cropping season of more than 20 percent could occur in the Sahel and
Sudano-Sahelian ecological zones by 2050 (SWAC,
2009). Across
Africa the landscape is changing. Droughts, heat stress and flooding have led
to a reduction in crop yields and livestock productivity. East Africa is
facing the worst food crisis in the 21st century. According to
Oxfam, 12 million people in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are in dire need of
food. Rainfall has been
below average
with 2010/2011 being the driest year since 1950/1951, a serious problem for a
continent almost entirely dependent on rain for its agriculture. Pastoralism plays an important role in the
economies of many West African countries. Altered temperature, precipitation
and extreme event patterns could to lead to the outbreak of climate-related
animal diseases (Garba, 2010). Pastoralists may also need to change their
migratory patterns, as they have done in the past in response to climatic
extremes (SWAC, 2009).
5. Impacts on Human Health
The health systems of many West African countries are weak and
could face additional pressures due to changes in the distribution of water-
and vector-borne diseases resulting from climate change. Conversely, a large
part of the region is expected to become unsuitable for malaria transmission
(Boko et al., 2007). Climate-sensitive
diseases and health impacts can be high in poor countries that have minimal
resources to treat and prevent illness. Examples of climate related health
impacts include: Frequent and severe heat stress linked to
sustained increases in temperature. The reduction in air quality that often
accompanies a heat wave can lead to breathing problems and worsen respiratory
diseases. The spread of Malaria may increase in areas projected to receive
more precipitation and flooding. Increases in rainfall and temperature can
cause spreading of dengue fever
5. Impacts
on Shelter
Severe flooding and intense droughts have led to the
destruction of many homes, shelters and villages across Africa. Conflicts
over resources also exacerbate these impacts and, in turn, contribute to the
ongoing migration within and between countries in Africa. Extreme events
displace large amounts of people, especially those who are unable to respond
and rebuild after disasters, due to lack of resources. S
6. Impacts
on Vulnerable Population
Women, children and the elderly are more vulnerable to
climate change impacts across Africa. Women labourers often experience
additional duties as caregivers and as well as from societal responses to
climate change after extreme weather events (eg, male migration). The water
scarcity places an additional burden on African women, who walk hours and
sometimes even the elderly face graver risks due to susceptibility to
infectious diseases, such as Malaria, limited mobility and reduced intake of
food. The elderly face physical danger and even death due to droughts, heat
stress and wildfires. Children often die from starvation, malnutrition,
diarrheal diseases and flooding. (IPCC, 2014)
7. Impacts on National Security
Climate
change impacts have the potential to exacerbate national security issues and
increase the number of international conflicts. Conflicts often occur over
the use of already limited natural resources, fertile ground and water.
Access to consistent and dependable sources of water is greatly valued in
many African regions. However, changes in the timing and intensity of
rainfall have threatened water availability and are causing conflicts over
this limited resource (IPCC, 2014).
8. Impacts on ecosystems
The coastal areas of West Africa support rich fisheries,
agriculture, coastal tourism, oil and gas industries, and transportation
corridors. Rising sea levels could damage coastal infrastructure, lead to
flooding and the intrusion of saltwater into low-lying areas, and the loss of
coastal agriculture due to soil salinization and inundation (Boko et al.,
2007). Fisheries are central to food security and an important source of
revenue and employment for coastal West African countries. Changes in sea
temperatures and currents could impact the productivity and position of key
fisheries (Boko et al, 2007). Climate
change has already led to changes in freshwater and marine ecosystems in
eastern and southern Africa, and terrestrial ecosystems in southern and
western Africa. The extreme weather events have demonstrated the
vulnerability of some of South Africa’s ecosystems. The migration patterns,
geographic range and seasonal activity of many terrestrial and marine species
have shifted in response to climate change. The abundance and interaction
among species has also changed (IPCC, 2014). Despite the fact that the
African continent has contributed the least to anthropogenic factors causing
climate change, Africa is the worst hit.
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4. Main research
contents and methods
Fundamental research content:
The fundamental research content
of this study is in line with the goals of the study as highlighted below,
a. To come up with an objective assessment
on the impacts of climate change on the water resource systems in Senegal and
Ghana
b. To identify the regions in Senegal
and Ghana with the highest impact levels of climate change, do a correlation
and a comparative analysis
c. Identify the adverse impacts of
climate change in the livelihood of the people in Senegal and Ghana
d. Point out activities that could
mitigate the impact of climate change on the water resources systems in
Senegal and Ghana
This study will also focus on
regions in Senegal and Ghana that are well known for their high climate
change impacts on water resources and its overall adverse effects.
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