Research Proposal
Intergroup
conflicts in Africa: Assessing the probability that the Ivory Coast conflict
will spread to its immediate neighbors
Mutiny broke out in 19 September 2002 in the Ivory Coast.
What began as gripes over the demobilization of soldiers had turned into a
bloody confrontation that split the nation into a predominantly Muslim north
and a predominantly Christian south. The rebellion threatens the economic
stability of the region, particularly of French-speaking African countries
belonging to the CAF-franc zone. The war is putting major powers to the test,
that is, France and the United States. (www.globalsecurity.org)
Inscribed in the current global climate of ethnic and
religious war, globalization and democratization, this conflict, like others of
its kind, threatens to create political and economic impacts beyond its
borders.
However, even though the Ivory Coast conflict appears to
have the ethnic qualities of wars that have erupted in the region in recent
years, there is reason to believe that it is not as complex as it might appear.
Prior to the crisis, Ivory Coast has been one of the richest nations in Africa
(it is the world’s biggest exporter of cocoa), with a stable government, high
foreign investments, and a standard of living that has become the envy of
neighboring countries. Although Ivorian Muslims have used the disqualification
of the Muslim presidential candidate Alassanne Ouattara as one reason to
support the rebels, Muslims and Christians have been living in relative peace
for more than a decade. It seems too ironic that all these assets should be
effaced by a rebellion that after all began over an issue of “job
restructuring”, not a presidential election. It is quite possible that the
importance of the conflict to the region has been overstressed.
However, the researcher’s initial model of the conflict
should be ethnic as the division of the country into religious zones remains
its most salient aspect. As a first approximation the model is adequate.
However, the researcher notes that such a division does not rule out an
opportunistic motive that has nothing ethnical to it. This paper will,
therefore, apply the ethnic model but will seek evidence both for and against
it.
Definition of the Research
Problem and Main Hypothesis
This study, therefore, asks the question: how likely is it
that the Ivory Coast conflict will spread beyond its borders? The premise of
this study is that it might spread if its roots were more importantly ethnic,
religious in particular, and that it will not if the roots were more political
and more readily subject to negotiation.
The researcher hypothesize that it is not likely to spread,
because the problem appears to be quite local and the issues negotiable.
Besides, even if the conflict were religious, the influence of non-Ivorian
players might be such as to outweigh the ethnic pressure to spread if the
ethnic pressure were not strong enough, which appears to be the case. It
further seems that Ivory Coast’s neighbors, except for Liberia, do not
constitute ignition points that might take fire from the Ivorian rebellion.
Research Objectives
- To show that the conflict, though
ethnic in appearance, is not primarily ethnic in motivation. Escalation of
the conflict from a small-scale mutiny to a full-blown rebellion is
fundamentally local and will remain local. The support of neighboring
states for the rebels is not ethnically motivated either. Similarly, to
show that the actual North/South partition of the country is only
secondarily a result of religious divisions.
- To show that the interests of
other players, in particular France and French-speaking nations in the
CFA-franc region, will not allow the conflict to spread because the ethnic
component of the problem is not strong enough. Also, to show that
neighboring states, with the possible exception of Liberia, can not for
now be qualified as ignition points that might take fire from events in
Ivory Coast.
Sources of data and information
Data in
support of these objectives will be obtained from media sources. These include
international news services like the BBC, the Washington Post, and the
Economist. Analysis papers will be sourced over the Internet, e.g., from the
site of think tanks like Global Security (www.globalsecurity.org). Opinions for
a Delphi forecast will be obtained from political science experts.
Suggested methods for gathering
information related to each of the objectives
Three kinds of information will be obtained: environmental risk
factors, political decision variables, and evolutionary development of each.
These three kinds constitute a research checklist and data quality control tool
as described below.
Internal and external
environmental risk factors
Carment
and James (n.d.) list a number of conditions associated with the violent
escalation of ethnic conflict.
- A state is experiencing power
transitions and rapid transformations that weaken its regime;
- A single ethnic group comes to
dominate policy-making procedures and institutions and inter-elite
accommodation is weak or nonexistent;
- The state provides a differential
advantage to a minority group over distribution of resources;
- Political channels for the
articulation of minority interests are weak or underdeveloped;
- The military is dominated by a
single ethnic group;
- Elites maintain institutions
specialized in coercion;
- Affective motivation and ethnic
cleavage are present;
- Success of insurgencies and
minority struggles in neighbouring states;
- There is third-party support for
an insurgency from allies of the ethnic group.
Data gathered should either confirm or reject such cases as
applying to Ivory Coast. Assessing these items requires an analytical model
that might include quantified magnitudes and weights to describe importance.
However, instead of trying to come up with such a model, this paper will merely
use this list as a means of generating issues or controversies. The issues will
be stated as decisions requiring resolution. Resolution will be the outcome of
a political interaction between players in the conflict. This interaction will
be assessed and evaluated as described in the following section.
Political decision variables
The analysis of political variables will be done as
described by W.D. Coplin (Coplin 1976). The
method, called “political accounting” involves gathering the following data:
1. Issues,
stated in terms of a decision. In this case the major issue is whether to let
the conflict spread. This issue can be broken down to others that will be
analyzed separately.
2. Players
(e.g., the 3 rebel groups, Pres. Gbagbo, France)
3. For
each player, with respect to the issues, a preference function that depends on
the following variables:
3.1.
Power, or ability to affect the outcome
of the decision;
3.2.
Position, whether the player is for or
against the decision, and the strength of his position (how strongly for or
against);
3.3.
Priority, the importance of the issue
with respect to other issues the player must deal with.
4. A
measure of the combined preferences of all players, leading to a probabilistic
assessment of the likelihood of the decision turning one way or another.
Evolution of environmental risk
factors and political variables
Most information that will be obtained will give only a
“snapshot” of the Ivorian conflict at a given point in time. But these
variables are not static and their evolution must be assessed for the study to
become more relevant. Are risk processes or attributes getting better or worse?
Are players becoming more or less stubborn or willing to make concessions? Is
there a player, now in the background, whose importance in the future is
expected to increase and will therefore merit inclusion in a political
analysis?
The probable evolution of variables is a complex process. In
this paper, we choose to use Delphi techniques to assess that evolution.
The Delphi technique consists in throwing a question
individually to experts who do not consult with each other. One question might
be: “Do you think that the mutinous soldiers will be willing to accept a
distribution of Cabinet posts as recently proposed? How long before they will
accept any eventual proposal on this question?” The individual responses of the
experts will be compiled and summarized, showing what each one thought. Then,
the summarized document containing all responses will be sent again to the
individual experts with the request that they re-evaluate their initial assessment.
This process will be repeated for as long as there is time or when a consensus
is reached.
Likely expected outcomes and
implications from possible research findings
Two outcomes are expected from this study: a predictive and a normative outcome.
The predictive outcome is a statement about the likelihood
of the conflict spilling over to neighboring countries. Depending on the
quality of the variables measured, it may even be possible to state this
probability in terms of a time frame (e.g., “Conflict will not spread across
the border until the end of the year.”). The importance of a predictive outcome
is that it gives a risk assessment that might be useful to businessmen or
politicians who are considering investing in the region.
The normative outcome will suggest what might be done to
influence the decision either way. Such an outcome can be valuable to diplomats
interested in brokering a peace between the conflicting parties. The analysis
of the variables presented here will either confirm the wisdom of measures
being negotiated as well as others measures representing new strategies for
dealing with this conflict.
Insofar as the Ivory Coast conflict shares similarities with
similar phenomena in the region, the predictive and normative outcomes might be
applicable to other countries. The method, at least, might represent an
improvement over existing analytical methods. However, insofar as the Ivory
Coast is unique—and it is our aim to show that it is not a typical ethnic
conflict in the usual African sense of the word—this analysis might show, for
example, that this and other conflicts have been wrongly or too narrowly
analyzed. In this paper, we hope to put that possibility to the test.
Bibliography
1. Anonymous
(2002). Ivory Coast Conflict, Retrieved March 5, 2003,
www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/ivory-coast.htm
2. Carment,
D. and James, P. (n.d.) Escalation of
Ethnic Conflict: A Survey and Assessment, Retrieved March 5, 2003, from http://www.carleton.ca/~dcarment/papers/escalati.html.
3. Coplin,
W.D. (1976). Everyman’s Prince: A guide
to understanding your political problems. New York: Wadsworth Pub. Co.
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